Tuesday, December 15, 2015

How good is the foxhound?

This is what I know about Leicester after their 2-1 win over Chelsea, current Champions to be officially dethroned come March.
No one expects them to be number 1.
Everyone pegged them for relegation end of last year.
Yet, they are top for 2 weeks now.

Every fan I know wants them to keep their run going. Most pundits I hear says they will definitely fall back into the hole they crawled out from. Many pundits want them to sell their star players to their favorite teams (or whoever pays them the most I guess) for pennies. One "superb" analyst at NBC even pegged them to fall so bad they will only get 60 points at the end of the season. Wait, they have 35 points now, so you are saying they hit "complete stinker" relegation form for 25 points out of 22 games? Did you plan something evil to do to Leicester which they cannot survive from?

Let's recap what 25 points from 22 games mean. THAT'S JUST 43 POINTS FOR 38 GAMES!  IT'S RELEGATION DOGFIGHT FORM. THERE IS A REASON WHY 40 POINTS IS THE GENERALLY ACCEPTED SAFETY NET. (Short of the analyst getting publicly shamed and fired for such abysmal work, I don't think I will ever ready NBC reports ever again). For other reasons why this is such a rotten prediction, google Newcastle, greatest title run implosion. Yea, that was bad. Leicester will fall off, but why let the pessimist ruin the wonderful run we're seeing right now? Also that pessimist don't even know what pessimistic predictions are. Like by at least 10x deviation. Oh sorry, I doubt he knows what standard deviation is.

The closest I hear to any sanity is from BEIN Sports, I think, (Ironically, because...God! I hate Ray Hudson, fingers crossed I got the name right, adds little insight until way after the play happened and lavish praises like "majesterial" towards every goal he sees by Real or Barcelona.) The pundit, not Ray Hudson nor his usual pal, says that Leicester should keep Mahrez at all cost and consider selling Vardy at 20 million. The reason why it is the closest is I rate Vardy at 30 million...AT LEAST. 

Sure, Vardy is 28, nearly over the hill, but the hill is like 3 years away maybe? Would you sell CR7 for just 50 million (compared to 100 or 200 million as he's supposed to be worth) because he's 30 now and not scoring as much as he used to? (No need to answer these you worthless pundits and "experts") A rags to riches story for a rags to riches club, Leicester has every right to ask for more. What about the workrate? What about the goalscoring? Even if I lower his goalscoring to his true average, 30 million for 15-20 goals is considered cheap. I'm sure many can quote other failures at 30 million or more. Can the fee go as high as 50 million? Sure, if Ranieri has leverage over negotiations. A "world class" team surely can amp up his scoring more, even at 30.

Sure, they will revert to their mean and start playing more like a mid table team, perhaps give them 2-3 seasons, they will get relegated. But don't let your biased rose colored glasses ruin the great run that Leicester fans have been so jovial about. Ranieri is no miracle maker, but he is guiding a good team, and let the real fans enjoy the fun while it is there. Let's stop all the crap the silly media machine is trying to throw at all budding teams with some potential of greatness, especially when they have some good young talent.

Mahrez, 24, and everyone wants a bit of his magic. Long career ahead and for now, well the sky is the limit. And given his similarly humble beginnings, his stay at Leicester would not only be welcomed but also beneficial for his development. Sure, go to Man U, City or Chelsea, fail a few games and get benched, surely we've see that far too many times. Unless it is a 
Albrighton, 26, brilliant winger playing on the other side of Mahrez.
Kante, 24, amateur footballer just a few years ago, playing at a level that he's never been before. 
Drinkwater, 25, lower division traveller till this year in Leicester.
Schlupp, 22, OK, I don't know much about him, but his age stood out to be one of the future.

Given them a spending of about 20 million for a few more able bodies to rotate the key players with, or even challenge the key players to be better, and I don't see why they can't reach UCL next season. Oh ya, NBC somehow knows that they will have a big disaster and only have 25 more points. I'm sure good players don't last for an entire season because others will want to hurt them.

The amount of negativity against them is pathetic and not why we love the game. We love the unpredictability, the ease that one can understand the game enough to play and enjoy it. We don't need "majesterial" abilities to understand the game. We don't need anyone to tell us that magical stories don't last. Way to kill Santa! What we need is to really think about what will happen to Leicester.

I know this is far too early to predict any massive change, but I would be very surprised that if Leicester ends up in Europe, much less UCL, that investors will not come asking. Hey, Abramovich can switch toys easily, I hear. OK, I have a decent amount of respect for him as a well functioning club owner. So, why would they sell their key assets for cheap? What is their debt like? Surely a few good years' TV revenue plus European revenue for a few years can improve the playing squad for 20 million a year, and I see this uptrend to be fairly sustainable. As long as Ranieri doesn't get fired over a sophomore slump of course.

Improve the quality and quantity of players coming through their academy, being prudent Wenger style for a few years. Don't overspend like Leeds, or Portsmouth, and they should be a steady midtable and above EPL team. This run will not last, but they have a good chance to improve their history and standing for a long time. And that starts by shedding the negativity thrown around by the media and focusing of finishing the season with all they got. Oh yea, please prove me right so that I can make fun of NBC Sports again come next year. Even if you fall off, Leicester, your Cinderella story will be here to stay for a long time. As an Everton fan, I salute your hunger and wish you the best. Break that glass ceiling that so many other teams fail to break.

EDIT: Oh wait, so everyone knew that Patriots are going to be undefeated for only 10 games and Carolina would be on a 13 game run and going. HUH?

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