Sunday, April 06, 2014

Everton's win cast doomsday spectre on Arsene Wenger?

To be fair, it is not a great weekend. Wisconsin Badgers lost by 1 point in a very good game, and my championship luck has not really much time to sink into local sports. Not that everyone think it is a must win. A win is a win, a loss is, well, a loss.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about the second game I was concerned with. However hard our last 6 games is, a win will put the ball in our court. Win the rest and at least draw Man City, and UCL is ours, barring and unlikely Chelsea or Man Utd win UCL win. Lose and it is pretty much over.

My gut tells me of a win, probably a hard fought win, and though I prepped myself to watch the game, I overslept. I missed the first half but got to watch the second half. Am I surprised to see we're 2-0 up? Not really. Am I surprised that we easily cruised through the second half for the win? Definitely.

Now, as excited as I am with Everton's performance and win, I am unsettled by the mindset of Arsenal and its fans. Sure it is bad, sure it is a horrible performance, but is there someone you know that can and will do the job better than Arsene Wenger?

Don't give me names like Brendan Rogers or Roberto Martinez or Jurgen Klopp. Why would they give up their comfy seats in a project that they can call theirs, and all the support they currently have at their clubs? Is the warchest a factor for these managers? Perhaps for Martinez and Klopp but they have always worked around it. 

And if Klopp is to leave Dortmund, he's likely destination is a UCL contender, not just a participant. As for Martinez, would you not think he will want to break that glass ceiling with Everton instead of a more wealthy yet do-or-die club like Arsenal? 

The mere fact fans are calling for Wenger to go shows me that Arsenal has little patience to wait for success. As much as there are adventure seekers like AVB, does Martinez look to be in that mold?

The question that one must ask, similar to what Everton did when OFM left, is, who is the most willing and able person for the job? We count our lucky stars that OFM left and not because we're fighting the relegation battle, and Wigan reached Europe but got relegated, and that we're a club of enough history to entice Martinez to come and perform the great restoration.

Like the recent firings that I question, e.g. AVB from Spurs, Hyypia from Leverkusen and more recently, like today, Hughton from Norwich. Hughton might be a dead man walking at Norwich for months, but the timing could not be more dire. And while it is possible that Adams create a miracle, you do not change manager until you have a direction for the club, and that direction based on the next few games is down. Leverkusen is another that leaves flabbergasted. No UCL, so Hyypia failed? How many German teams would want to be in their position? At least 10. Similarly for AVB. And don't get me started on the PR disaster of the Looney Toons that came due to the tragic decision to fire Sir Bobby Robson.

While it is a "what have you done for me recently?" world nowadays, the decision making process to ensure success has not changed. Who is the best person to lead us forward?

In Everton's case, Martinez was the best person because he is the most willing and able. Would I prefer Pep? Or Laudrup after his Cup win? Or an unorthodox name Poyet, unfortunately tainted by his untimely firing from Brighton? Yes and Yes in my dreams, and No, even when I preferred him at first. Heck, I preferred Di Canio at first but he's not even tested in EPL yet. The best person is Martinez even though I was worried about his tactics being too porous. Not to mention his first buys are mostly Wigan players. But I am patient and supported him because it is my club. 

As much as the manager runs the team onto the field for the performance, the team is backed financially by the owners and emotionally by the fans (though we do pay for their salary still). If the owners are misers, as many fans would call Kenwright, then we need someone willing to work within those constraints, and from the list most willing, the most able of the lot.

After the first 19 games, I was so elated, even the harshest defeats later would not make me doubt Martinez. Form is temporary, class is eternal, and Martinez showed that. Unless we're fighting for our EPL lives next season, I do not think I will be disappointed with anything that gets us into Europe. NOTE, I said Europe, NOT UCL. Why? Our debts in the 90s might no longer be a worry but we're not going to be a spender all of a sudden. Getting the right building blocks is far more important than a flash in the pan success.

A manager, being the key person to mold the team, should not be the first person out the door if the team doesn't perform. Unless it is a dressing room revolt, which I suggest firing both the manager and players, the only reason you should change managers is like what Guardiola said, "I cannot reach them anymore to spur them forward". Yes, a manager change can only be for the better, if not, DON'T CHANGE!

Hence, is an Arsenal fan is to ask me, should Wenger go, I would say, ONLY if a replacement is there and that given the tenure of Wenger, give him time to hand it over. He made the financial situation in Arsenal very desirable, now the next guy needs to come in and make it better by leading them into UCL. But based on what I see, is that guy going to have time to do that? Unfortunately, no. Hence, who do you have left? Arsene Wenger. Maybe some of those managers in Serie A, or someone other than Guardiola or Klopp in Germany. Hey, I hear Hyypia is unemployed right now, though I've not seen enough to gauge his prowess.

Anyhow, it is sickening for me to hear that fans want the manager that got them so far out just because he fell short of his past heights by just that bit. Bobby Robson, David O'Leary, Martin Jol, AVB and so many others. What I can say is, because of how tight the competition is, a mistake in a few games due to form of the team, injuries and perhaps decisions of the manager, it is easy to fall short of UCL or worse. Yet, is it any shame to miss out on UCL? HELL NO! There are at least 10 other teams that would like THAT shot at Europe, and the gravy train that is UCL. In fact, this last paragraph gave me somewhat of an epiphany.

To me, the only time appropriate to fire a manager during the season is at the end of November, after about a third of the games, or roughly 15. That gives the next manager time to use the transfer window to mold his team if he doesn't like the current team.

The positions that I think should make use of this window to fire managers is between 15-20. Why not anything above? Did you read what I wrote above? Plus, if we have seen the Great Escape by West Brom, anything is possible with 20+ games to go. And I did remember Everton being in top 10 despite being bottom for quite a while in that odd year under OFM. Hence, no top team, sugardaddy Roman aside since contracts mean nothing to Chelsea, should ever think about firing their managers until they are absolutely out of contention.

And even then, you should not restructure your team at whim just because they are in a lower European competition. Look at Leeds, Newcastle and Real after Del Bosque. Are they any better after O'Leary, Robson and The Marquis left? What about Spurs after Jol, or more recently AVB? Heck, I don't think Swansea should fire Laudrup. Where are they now compared to where they are when they fired him?

The only exception in the second half of the season is ironically the timing Norwich and Leverkusen took, but under a different circumstance, when the team has nothing to play for, rank 9-15 and must be quite safe from relegation yet far away from Europe contention. If the team is in Europe contention even mathematically (OK, that might be too strict but you know what I mean), don't you silly owners and fans think about removing the manager. Why? Because you can go on a run and win the title! Or escape relegation! Or whatever you think is impossible might just become possible cause a few players were injured or serving a short ban or whatever.

Even though this might mean that OFM should be removed from Man Utd, do remember that he is still in UCL and the only time from now till the end to fire (you can always fire after the season), is when you have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to play for.

To close my argument, I shall give you my list of dumbest firings:

  1. Sir Bobby Robson from Newcastle, still the worst and most disgusting decision ever regardless of timing
  2. David O'Leary from Leeds, seriously? Just because he achieved Europa after reaching UCL semis?
  3. Vicente Del Bosque from Real, what have they achieved so far after he left? Is any of his replacements since more able to control the massive egos? Ancelotti and Capello are 2 I looked up to but look at how subdued Capello is at Real. I can only hope Ancelotti can avoid Capello's fate.

OK, that kind of concludes my rant. I cannot believe on a day I'm so happy about for Everton would be a day I rant. Seriously, if you think firing Wenger can fix what is wrong with Arsenal, Arsenal would be bankrupt if you run the club. I would agree if you HIRE a tactical consultant for him to run the in-game management. Heck, better idea, PROMOTE Wenger to Director of Football and hire a new manager, though as I mentioned, the list is not too long for Arsenal. Yes, you've been good for the past 2 decades and Everton is not, but no, I believe Martinez is sincere in seeing Everton break the glass ceiling. Only place I can see him leave us for is Barcelona. And Arsenal is no Barcelona, as much as we try to emulate their style.

And I repeat, unless we are fighting against relegation next season, Martinez has that stay of execution at least for one season. Even if he struggles to have to fight relegation, heck, didn't OFM have a horrible season too within his first 3 seasons? For the positive attitude, I'll want him to lead my team as long as we're competitive and challenging for UCL. Even if there is that one blip season once in a while.

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