Friday, January 09, 2009

The O

For any Gundam fan who watched the Zeta series all the way, you would have remember the bad guy's machine called The O. Of course, I'm talking about Obama, and I'm not referring to him as a bad guy, just rather, just that the halo on him is like he is the messiah. Of course, there are detractors, but the supporters are now at fever pitch to the point where he's a hero even before beginning his term. Which of course created the Obama rally.

The thing I don't understand is that he has said that he will solve the problem. So far, the solutions he suggested are not going to help. Bail out homeowners means that many young people like myself would be denied the chance to get a house at the correct price with the correct loan. It is populist at best and suicidal in truth. When the government forcefully becomes a pseudo landlord, basically, we do not have democracy anymore. And printing anymore money recklessly means that lender countries like China have more reason to dump the dollar, creating the end of the dollar.

Of course, what make or break him are his associates. None have really impressed so far, and ideas are just being spun around. From the trillion stimuli to TARP 2.0, things just keep coming. Of course, they are good efforts and one should realize that the reason why they are not able to pull the stimuli through as of now is due to TARP being passed so easily. Yes, it got shot down once. Yes, it crashed the market. But one would wonder, who benefits from a bullish stock market when everyone else outside than Wall Street loses their jobs?

That brings TARP 2.0. The good, it shifted the focus away from Wall Street. It has been proven that dumping money to the banks does not save the economy. If you lend money to your drug addict friend, and never got back any, what is the chance you will lend him again? It simply saves Paulson's friends.

The bad about TARP 2.0 so far? Barney Frank wants to spend some of it on commercial real estate. Why is this man in Congress, much less the head of the Housing board or something? I understand saving municipalities, saving automakers for their jobs, but commercial real estate? I suspect Frank merely copied the words "automaker" and "municipal" from other scrips like that from Obama.

Ok, Mike told me of the construction workers, but here is the scenario.

You hire a factory load of autoworkers to make a car, the car can be sold cheaper, maybe at factory cost, and the workers get lesser pay based on the market. The velocity of money is relatively slow compared to other products, but manageable. At least there is a relatively weak but existent market for cars.

Imagine the skyscraper, which no one wants right now, being built because real estate moguls are bailed out. The workers? Yeah, how is the money being given to the rich developers going to save these poor workers. Not to mention that they are already poorly paid and facing the sad truth of the lurking hyperinflation. Will the money reach them? Will the money be recycled back into the market when the product doesn't even move off the shelf?
Oh, and then the deficit Frank created with his demands won't be paid by the next generation, because there isn't a next generation because the current is too poor to feed them when inflation kicks in once velocity of money picks up.

So frankly, I rather see a plan to reshuffle these workers with only labor skillsets to municipalities related construction workforce than building more skyscrapers. Build better transport, better networks, not skyscrapers for Frank.

I think "The O" should start by ordering the entire Congress and House be re-elected. The entire idea of the Democrats holding the majority of all three pillars of USA is sickening to say the least, having people like Frank that still seats in great authority. Obama made the good move of having Republicans in his cabinet. Now, he needs to weed out people like Frank, who's ideas are either populist or bad for unknown, and perhaps suspect, reasons. The sad thing is when Ryan voted for Obama, but was unable to support a capable Republican in Connecticut who got unseated, I knew that the system is flawed.

Anyway, this week, the Obama factor took a hit at the end, and my shorts recovered some of its losses. It's one thing to hope for armagedon, its another to see the market and capitalize on a weakness. One thing for sure, the market must correct itself, with or without intervention, and time has proven that intervention has often made things worse.

So far, nothing about the USA government inspires me. There are lots of great people, but often, in the struggle for power and money, these great people are drowned by the desires of the masses. Yet, the thoughts of that ONE can move the masses. So even when I truly feel Obama can change a few things for the better, he is not making the best moves. Or perhaps my judgment was wrong, that he is only another mediocre politician. Perhaps only time can tell.

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