Thursday, May 21, 2009

One way train

Well, the bears are getting run over, and from a small profit to a huge loss, that is my story for the rally. Interestingly, wise men like Roubini and Schiff have continued their rant on the worsening economy, like myself. I did find something useful.

Shiff mentioned that inflation is rendering the USD useless, and hence a more risky asset compared to stocks and other risky instruments. This is a sad state of affairs if you look at it. Bad numbers, rally. Good numbers, rally more. Here, stagflation rules, and soon will give way to uberinflation. I like coining new terms. How will Obama save USA? Or won't he, since he has all the money and power now? Or maybe he will just rob me?

Frankly, like my other posts, why do we need to continue bailing out these banks and have no control on them. Obviously, they don't want to be "backed" either. My solution at the beginning is simple. Nationalize the banks. Well, that will provide chaos right? No, since you only need to nationalize some big banks that proved to be the weakest link to the many counterpartied banks. Then, wind it down completely. Either way, we are backstopping the losers.

Now, we backstop the banks, the banks still don't lend as much, one, the demand is not as high anymore, two, they learn not to lend to deadbeats. Three, outside the banking operations, they need to wind down, thereby reducing their productivity, if they had any to begin with. So why the optimism? Green shots?

Well, in short, when I compare what is happening today to anything else, especially when USA is worried about losing their AAA rating like how UK is rumored to be, I will say, don't worry. You lost it already. When Geithner gave PPIP. When Bernanke print money to buy money. When FASB changed Mark to Market into Mark to Myth/Max. When Obama sided with exorbitantly paid UAW to give Chrysler to workers who build cars that no one wants and giving lenders nothing but death threats. When everyone allowed the banks to argue how to present the state of their financial health.

The biggest loser is not the ones who lost weight on TV. Its the Americans from age 65 and below, because retirement will disappear from the dictionary. In fact, the whole world, except for a few countries, will suffer for the cruelest of hits.

Well, like they say, "nice guys never win". Bankers and Politicians are the complete anti-thesis of nice guys. Can I be a nice guy and attain success? In fact, early in my career, I was told that I can't succeed just by being a nice guy and that is again proven by an official outing yesterday and some chitchat I heard today. Well, so much for humanity.

I do need to say, it is interesting to know that Tolkein wrote his books because he wanted to reinspire humanity. Its really great to know someone with similar aspirations being successful, but he has advantages. I don't. But like him, I know it is not easy.

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