End Of Bear?

I stumbled upon a website called dshort and came across a few posts. One was the famous bear charts. Another was the bottoming process for bear markets. According to it, we are in our sixth month, with a range of six weeks to eight months since 1950. I think it is not correct to say that we are near the end.

From what I remember favorably about USA since 1950, the people here have been very vocal and active to point out their disfavor of any form of bad policy making. I think that negated any bad interventionist approach that came its way since 1950. My impression of the 1930s is the big government effect, which is what we are experiencing now. The Fe(e)d and Treas(on)ury can pump as much liquidity as they like, all for the sake of recapitalizing badly managed banks. Furthermore, people nowadays are withdrawn from politics. Additionally, a depression is a worldwide phenomena, so unlike recessions since 1950, there is no other place to load up developed debt and write them off with the blink of the eye. That is why, I like the bottoming to be near, say another two months, but I see no fundamental truth to that.

Anyway, I want to reiterate my disgust for Goldman. Of all the tricks that a bank can use, like squeezing losses to a certain time period and raise reserves, piling losses on a "orphan" month (December 2008) is quite blatantly the cheapest trick ever to be shown in public. Sadly, the world market bought into that and rallied. Fortunately, I was enlightened by Jason that Goldman can only change reporting standards once. But then, rules are made by humans, so if they are less than responsible...

Well, my shorts probably might be killed, but at least show me productive wealth creation, not creative wealth production (think BAD movie remakes). My stand is pretty much set and will remain as such.

A stock market is an exchange for people to invest in productive companies, most often judged by the profitability of the company, thereby increasing the capability of the company to be more productive through capital infusion by selling shares. Banks already have a supply of capital and should not be reliant on third party cash infusion, hence the lack of need to be in the market. Also, being the better of balancing capital compared to industrial companies, the industrial is like a boy pitted against an adult in number crunching. Therefore, I don't see the need for (deposit) banks to be listed. Hm, I'm starting to like credit unions more...