Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Start of End

Today, I bought Apple. Well, I was playing a bounce so maybe I took too much risk. Anyway, everyone know that today is -777 for Dow. Some say it will go to 8000 without intervention. I think that will be next week. Think of it. If that happens, we won't need a bailout since the entire thing will wash out all the weak companies, which naturally means that the companies that survive are ones that the banks will lend to anyway.

Which comes to mean what we have left to solve is the fundamental problem. The hubris of bad companies and unrealistic borrowers are gone. As a realistic borrower, I'm not even benefiting. While I agree that some are "duped" into borrowing something they can't pay, I think that is a stretch on the long haul. The attitude of borrowing for now should be eradicated. Yes, take a bit of risk, but right now, there is no sense of risk aversion.

The market will probably soon force companies to reveal the assets by financial companies, since that is what is hidden in the pyramid scheme by the banks. Whatever it is, being marked to market means that it should be zero by now, since no one wants it. So rather than writing down by the minute, they should either, write it to zero or rewrite all the underlying debt.

It sounds kind of crazy, but I can't imagine myself buying the CDOs if I know the structure. Like my email to AIG for the complete equity list being refuted as "not required by law", I think many people have the right now to sue these companies for not explaining how the securities work.

Yes, I take risk and can lose money, but how dare you not tell me why I'm losing money. Now, that is a scam, even if it is legally backed. Note, my belief is that laws need to evolve as well, to protect people. Evidently, most of these bubbles are built on the ignorance of people and capitalized by the "evil" ones. The problem, what happens when its revealed?

So, we should punish the "evil" ones, yes, but what about the "scammed". Surely they are driven by greed too. I taken the bitter pill and wrote my loss off. I implore people to do that too so that we can move on. I never believe one should live above his means. But now, many in USA is living way above their means. If the US government really want to help people, they should immediately look at the underlying assets and rewrite them, especially those that are sold overseas. No customer, no business. Simple as that. I might be wrong but I know that if more mortgages defaulted the entire bond packaged around it will be worthless. Why aren't anyone from the government attacking the problem then? Each party, the lender, the borrower and the bond writer and thier entire hordes of accountants, take a bit of loss through negotiation and zip, the problem is solved.

Of course, I'm ranting, probably nonsense to most, but just food for thought. I'm sure my idea is raw, but someone as smart as Obama should be able to package it better to lead the world out of this mess.

Edit: Interesting link about the Dow and the president. Other than the unfortunate fellow who happened to be president in 1929, I think the rest have their reaons.

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